Economy

The Wrath of Caesar

2020-06-11

The Makhlouf affair may accelerate a generalized collapse of Syrias economy and effective control over the country.

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You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production

2020-06-11

The intervention of President Trump, worried by the decimation of comparatively high cost U.S. shale oil production companies, forced President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to back off...

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Preventing an Emerging-Market Meltdown

2020-06-11

Emerging markets today account for more than two-fifths of global GDP measured at market exchange rates, and nearly three-fifths after adjusting for differences in purchasing power.

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The End of Europe’s Chinese Dream

2020-06-02

The COVID-19 crisis has pushed Europeans strategic thinking about China – already shifting because of three developments – past the tipping point. After years of pursuing closer bilateral economic ties, Europeans suddenly realize that they have become dan

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Can corruption risks be mitigated without hindering governments’ COVID-19 response?

2020-05-31

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to increase corruption risks and practices that contribute to illicit financial flows, and may also introduce new risks.

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What Should We Be Preparing For?

2020-05-30

In most emerging and developing countries, COVID-19 is causing an economic hurricane. It looks increasingly like a Category 5, but the international community and many national governments prepared for a tropical storm.

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At a Breaking Point

2020-05-27

Lebanons politicians know they must save their country from an implosion in order to save themselves.

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The Death of Lebanon’s Middle Class

2020-05-23

A country with a proud history of trade and commerce is starting to crumble into permanent poverty.

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Currency chaos, exploding prices and burning banks

2020-05-18

In Lebanon, the local currency has slumped to a record low, people are losing their jobs and the price of food is skyrocketing. Despite the threat posed by the coronavirus, hundreds are taking to the streets in protest. Julia Neumann reports from Beirut

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The Misguided War on Global Value Chains

2020-05-13

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economies around the world to an abrupt halt and highlighted the fragility of existing global value chains. But demolishing these key drivers of international trade and investment would only make a bad situation worse.

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The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates

2020-05-13

Only monetary policy addresses credit throughout the economy. Until inflation and real interest rates rise from the grave, only a policy of effective deep negative interest rates, backed up by measures to prevent cash hoarding by financial firms, can do t

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Will Crashing Oil Prices Put American Energy in Its Coffin?

2020-04-26

The fundamental reason is that the coronavirus pandemic has suddenly reduced demand by around 30 percent because we are not driving cars, not going to work, not manufacturing things in most factories, here and in much of the world.

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The Human-Capital Costs of the Crisis

2020-04-16

Unlike a hurricane or earthquake, the coronavirus pandemic has caused no damage to physical capital stock. But firm-specific skills have no value when the firm that uses them goes out of business, which is one reason why US productivity...

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Will the OPEC Agreement Work and, If So, How Long Will It Last?

2020-04-16

The market appears to doubt that the deal will suffice, and royal family dynamics could push the oil crisis into further rounds.

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Navigating the Pandemic Trilemma

2020-04-07

The broad consensus of the COVID-19 era holds that measures to protect public health imply hard trade-offs with economic growth and political liberty.

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Capitalism’s Triple Crisis

2020-04-05

After the 2008 financial crisis, we learned the hard way what happens when governments flood the economy with unconditional liquidity, rather than laying the foundation for a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Now that an even more severe crisis is under

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Coronavirus: Lebanon banks halt dollar withdrawals after pandemic closes airport

2020-04-01

US currency is imported into the country but Beiruts international airport is to remain closed until at least 12 April

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The Race Between Economics and COVID-19

2020-03-28

For years, the economics profession has suffered from a stubborn reluctance to adopt a more multidisciplinary approach. But now that the COVID-19

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Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

2020-03-22

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the worlds largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.

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The COVID-19 Cash Out

2020-03-22

While Chinese authorities have been destroying banknotes that have potentially come into contact with the coronavirus, Western countries remain woefully behind not just in their response to the pandemic

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Averting Economic Disaster Is the Easy Part

2020-03-22

Based on Chinas experience with COVID-19, the fiscal cost of comprehensive compensation for lost income could reach 10% of annual GDP, and as much as 25% of GDP in the US and Europe if the epidemic turns out to be worse there, which now looks likely. Thes

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Policy Action for a Healthy Global Economy

2020-03-18

The case for a coordinated and synchronized global fiscal stimulus is becoming stronger by the hour.

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The Wealth and Health of Nations

2020-03-15

The COVID-19 outbreaks implications for the global economy are highly uncertain but potentially disastrous.

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Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims

2020-03-14

A train wreck is about to occur in the oil market, and there will be casualties. Russia and Saudi Arabia, which previously had cooperated in making the world market well-supplied, no longer can agree on how to share the benefits.

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